Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers/Atlanta Hawks Over 246.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
As high as this total is, there’s a lot to like from these teams that suggests it’s reachable. The Lakers are still the league’s best over team in road games at 17-6, while Hawks home games are 14-8 to the over with the league’s highest plus/minus to the total. The offensive issues that plagued Atlanta earlier this month seem to have been fixed, as they’re averaging 127.0 PPG the past 3 games and should get Dejounte Murray back tonight.
The spread for this game is a dead giveaway that Lebron James is not playing in this second leg of the back-to-back for LA. But that’s not the worst thing, as the Lakers have scored more without him this season. Lakers games in general have been wild lately, with 8 of the past 11 getting into the 240’s or higher. They should score at will against the awful Hawks defense while their own road defensive issues continue, sending this game over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Carolina/Georgia Tech Under 152.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
Taking the under in any UNC game is not fun as the Tar Heels can erupt at any moment. But books keep hanging high totals in anticipation of that offense going off, and the defense keeps being the story. Carolina is actually 8-2 to the under the past 10 games overall, and 9-1 to the under in ACC play. The rest of the conference outside of Duke just isn’t any good, and Carolina is able to flex their defensive muscle in these games instead of having to win shootouts.
Georgia Tech is one of those weaker offensive teams, as they don’t shoot it particularly well and rely on the three-ball a little too much. That won’t work against UNC’s perimeter defense that’s allowing the 18th-best three-point percentage in the country. The Heels are 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, making it a new brand of basketball that isn’t quite accounted for in the betting market, so I’m going under again with them.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) San Jose St @ Utah St -13 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on MW Network
This is a big mismatch, and the number being where it is really surprises me. There is a big distinction between the haves and have-nots in the Mountain West, and San Jose State is clearly in the have-not category this season. They’ve been fortunate to only play road games against other have-nots so far, but that changes in a big way tonight.
Utah State has been dominant at home this season, especially in conference play where they’re 3-0 ATS. That includes running out both of the other bad Mountain West teams that have visited Logan, and they should do it again tonight. San Jose State has real trouble defensively, and struggles to guard inside. The Aggies love to get the ball inside to Great Osobor, and are 9th nationally in two-point percentage as a result. They should get whatever they want inside tonight and run out another bad visiting team.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2005-1804 ATS (+94.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.